Badrinath Hanging Glacier Study: What the New Ice Avalanche Risk Assessment Says

What happened

A new scientific study has assessed what could happen to Badrinath if part of a hanging glacier above the town were to break away. The peer-reviewed paper, published in the journal Landslides on 28 October, was funded by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and written by researchers from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), DRDO and the University of Cambridge, The Indian Express reported.

The researchers examined three hanging glaciers, which are masses of ice on steep mountain slopes, sitting between 4,700 and 5,465 metres above sea level. Badrinath, on the Alaknanda river in Uttarakhand's Chamoli district, lies far below them.

Why people are searching

• The headline numbers. In the worst case modelled, an avalanche from the most hazardous glacier could reach about 398 buildings, 2.66 km of roads, two bridges, a helipad and parking areas.
• Badrinath's importance. It is one of the four Char Dham shrines. About 1.7 million pilgrims visited during the 2025 yatra, according to The Indian Express.
• Recent disasters. One of the authors told The Times of India that a glacier-related disaster in northern Nepal in August showed the risks of mountain instability, while noting that the two cases may involve different mechanisms.

How the study was done

The team used satellite imagery and elevation data to identify where ice could break away and estimate how much. They then simulated avalanches with the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model under low-, medium- and high-mobility conditions by varying friction values, NDTV reported.

The second site showed the greatest risk. The Indian Express reported a modelled peak speed of 78.5 metres per second and a flow height of up to 73.5 metres, on a glacier surface sloping at 34.57 degrees. Reported estimates of the ice volume at the site vary between outlets, but all describe it as several million cubic metres.

The study found that results changed relatively little between the low- and high-mobility scenarios, with most differences below 7%. It also found that how far an avalanche travels does not depend only on the volume of ice. The shape of the valley below can carry a smaller mass a long way.

What the study does not say

The authors stress that their findings are simulated scenarios and do not suggest that a collapse is imminent, The Times of India reported. They also note the limits of their method. Ice thickness and volume were estimated from satellite data and models rather than measured on the ground, and the choice of friction values adds uncertainty to how far and how fast an avalanche would travel. The Indian Express reported that the temple itself is not expected to be in the direct path, although debris could reach the area.

What comes next

The researchers call for detailed hazard assessments of each site, early-warning systems, better land-use planning and limits on construction in exposed zones, along with greater awareness among residents and pilgrims. No official response from the Uttarakhand government had been reported at the time of writing.